The Outlook for the US Presidential Elections and Beyond

06 December 2016
09.00 - 12.30

Donald Trump’s unexpected victory led to a period of serious introspection after one uncommon and hate-ridden campaign. Despite the majority of forecasts predicted Clinton’s victory, she finished with 232 electoral votes, far short of Trump’s 306, although she surpassed him in the popular vote by well over two million votes.

This outcome urges us to reflect on what should be expected from the next US presidency. Was it a wakeup call for a country mangled by “political correctness”? Did voters excused, or even embraced, Trump’s harsh rhetoric, or are we facing something else?

Donald Trump is known for his unpredictability and is now, as President-elect, sending mixed signs as he appoints controversial people while simultaneously calling for unity among the American people.

What will this US election outcome mean in an economic, security and political perspective for Europe and the global order?

What should we expect on the future of trade relationships with the US? The President-elect wants to revise the NAFTA agreement due to alleged American job losses. Furthermore, he expressed his intention to withdraw from TPP. This stance suggests he might not be favourable to continuing free trade negotiations with Europe. However, nothing was yet said concerning the TTIP. The latter is already struggling with many hurdles in Europe and now faces a possible US presidential veto.

The US complains about Europe’s lack of financial commitment to NATO. What should be Europe’s next move? The doubts raised about the US protecting the Baltic States might increase the UK’s significance as a military power in Europe, a crucial matter for Brexit negotiations.

Should the potential improvement in the relationship between the Russian and the American presidents worry eastern European Member States, or Europe in general?

In addition, Trump said he will not shy away from intervening in monetary policy and the Eurozone’s fate is strongly linked to how he does so.

Finally, Trump’s victory is seen as a great boost for the so-called populist forces, which are haunting Europe’s mainstream politics. How will this outcome influence the several major elections taking place in some European countries in the upcoming weeks and months?

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